TRX Price Prediction: Can It Reach $1? Analyzing the Path Through 2026

#TRX

• Critical Resistance Test: TRX is testing a key technical resistance at the upper Bollinger Band (~$0.307). Its ability to break and hold above this level will be a primary short-term directional indicator.
• Regulatory Crosscurrents: Market sentiment is caught between strong fundamental adoption (record stablecoin volumes) and increasing regulatory compliance actions, which could limit near-term explosive growth.
• Long Road to $1: Achieving a $1 price target would require a gain of over 227%, demanding a major bullish macro shift, sustained buying pressure, and a favorable resolution to ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

TRX Price Prediction

TRX Technical Analysis: Approaching Resistance with Mixed Signals

As of January 14, 2026, TRX is trading at $0.3059, slightly above its 20-day moving average of $0.29175, indicating a potential shift in short-term momentum. The MACD histogram shows a value of -0.001860, which, while still negative, suggests bearish momentum may be weakening as the MACD line (-0.008976) converges toward the signal line (-0.007116).

The price is currently testing the upper Bollinger Band at $0.306778, a key resistance level. A sustained break above this band could signal increased bullish momentum, while a rejection could see a retest of the middle band at $0.29175 or the lower band at $0.276722. "The convergence in the MACD and the price's position NEAR the upper band create a critical juncture," said BTCC financial analyst William. "Traders should watch for a confirmed breakout or reversal at this level for the next directional cue."

Regulatory Scrutiny and Adoption Growth Shape TRX Sentiment

Recent headlines present a dual narrative for Tron's TRX and the broader crypto market. The surge in Revolut's stablecoin volumes to a record $1.2 billion in December 2025 highlights growing mainstream adoption and on-ramp activity, which is fundamentally positive for network tokens like TRX.

However, this is tempered by tightening regulatory oversight. Tether's freeze of $182 million in USDT on the TRON network for compliance reasons and the French regulator's report that 30% of unlicensed crypto firms are unresponsive ahead of the MiCA deadline underscore a hardening regulatory environment. "The record stablecoin volumes are a powerful bullish indicator for utility and demand," noted BTCC's William. "Yet, the compliance actions remind us that regulatory clarity, while necessary for long-term health, can introduce short-term volatility and pressure on networks that are heavily utilized for transactions."

Factors Influencing TRX’s Price

French Regulator Reports 30% of Unlicensed Crypto Firms Unresponsive Ahead of MiCA Deadline

France's financial regulator has flagged concerning gaps in compliance as the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regime takes effect. Nearly a third of registered crypto companies without MiCA licenses—approximately 30% of 90 firms—have failed to communicate their intentions to the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). The silence raises questions about whether these entities plan to exit the market by the June 30 deadline.

Stéphane Pontoizeau of the AMF confirmed proactive outreach to firms last November, with responses revealing a fragmented landscape: 30% have applied for licenses, while 40% explicitly declined to pursue compliance. Notable licensed operators like Coinbase, Binance, and Circle contrast sharply with unresponsive players, highlighting regulatory stratification.

Paris is simultaneously advocating for expanded powers for the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), signaling tighter oversight. The MiCA framework, operational since 2023, aims to standardize crypto regulation across the bloc—though France previously contested cross-border license recognition over competitive concerns.

Revolut's Stablecoin Volumes Surge to Record $1.2B in December 2025

Revolut has achieved a milestone in stablecoin transfers, hitting a record $1.2B in December 2025. The platform's adoption of stablecoins has accelerated exponentially, fueled by expanding infrastructure and user demand. Transaction volumes for dollar-pegged assets grew 156%, while total payment value ROSE 38.5% over two years.

The integration of Polygon and Solana networks in late 2025 further boosted Revolut's stablecoin capabilities. Analysts project stablecoin's share of Revolut's activity could nearly double from 0.315% to 0.58% as adoption continues.

Monthly volumes tell the story: starting at $600M early in the year, Revolut's stablecoin transfers doubled by December. Though still trailing dedicated DeFi platforms, the neobank demonstrates consistent growth in digital asset adoption.

Tether Freezes $182M USDT in Compliance Crackdown on Tron Network

Tether's decisive action to freeze five Tron-based wallets holding $182 million in USDT underscores the growing regulatory muscle of stablecoin issuers. The January 11 freeze—executed within hours at law enforcement's request—marks one of the largest single-day compliance interventions on the TRX blockchain.

Whale Alert data reveals each targeted address contained between $12M-$50M in USDT. Tether's spokesperson confirmed months-long coordination with global authorities, aligning with OFAC guidelines and their December 2023 voluntary freeze policy. This MOVE signals stablecoins' dual evolution as both financial instruments and compliance enforcement tools.

Will TRX Price Hit 1?

Based on the current technical setup and market fundamentals, a move to $1 for TRX in the near to medium term appears highly ambitious and faces significant hurdles.

From a technical perspective, TRX would need to appreciate by approximately 227% from its current price of ~$0.306. This would require a sustained, powerful bullish cycle far exceeding its current trading range, which is bounded by resistance near $0.307. The path would involve consecutively breaking multiple historical resistance levels.

Fundamentally, while growing stablecoin adoption on the Tron network is a strong positive, the increasing regulatory scrutiny—exemplified by the large USDT freeze—could constrain rapid, speculative growth. Such actions may affect transaction volumes and sentiment in the short term.

Key Technical & Fundamental Hurdles:

"While never impossible in the volatile crypto space, a rally to $1 from here would require a perfect storm of bullish catalysts—massive new adoption, a decisive break in Bitcoin's dominance favoring altcoins, and a favorable resolution to current regulatory pressures," said BTCC financial analyst William. "A more realistic bullish scenario for 2026 might involve a challenge of higher resistance levels, such as $0.50, contingent on a positive market structure shift."